The early morning of 5th July is likely to be a difficult watch for those socialists who plan to stay up for the results. What are likely to be the highlights? Well, you can play Tory Bingo with our cut out and play card and tick off the Tories as they lose their seats. Beyond that, highlights may be few and far between.

Of course, there will be the exit poll at 10 pm which, in the past couple of elections, has been remarkably close to the final result. Two things are worth looking out for. The number of seats for each party. Remember 326 is the threshold for a majority. Somewhere between 3 and 4 am it should be obvious that there is a winner and that there is no chance of anybody getting close to them. We expect that winner to be Labour. If it is a particularly horrendous night for the Tories, things might become clearer even earlier.

The other big issue, although one that will get less coverage, is turnout. See our chart on pages 10-11 to see how turnout has fallen since the 1970s. A lower turnout on this occasion is likely to favour Labour and Reform, though it is worth saying that some socialist candidates might also be the beneficiaries of both Tory and Labour voters staying at home. We would expect the turnout to be around 65% but, if it falls below that, the side effect will be that Starmer could well end up with fewer votes than Jeremy Corbyn received in 2017 and possibly 2019. Though the massive majority will ensure that this will never be mentioned again.

For the left the big names will not be announced until around 2.30 am, with George Galloway (Rochdale) and Dave Nellist (Coventry East) knowing their results somewhere around that time. It will be worth looking at Jody McIntyre (Birmingham Yardley) who should also get her result in Jess Phillips’ constituency sometime before 3 am.

Sometime between 3 and 4 am we should hear the result from Islington North, and it will be everything crossed hoping for a good result for Jeremy Corbyn. Around the same time, Claudia Webbe (Leicester East) should know whether she has retained her seat.

Chris Williamson’s Derby South constituency should declare shortly after 4 am. And then we will be hanging on for Andrew Feinstein challenging Keir Starmer in Holborn and St Pancras and Leanne Mohamad trying to unseat Wes Streeting in Ilford North. Kensington and Bayswater, where Emma Dent Coad is standing as an independent, should also declare around the same time.

If you are playing Tory Bingo, you might be able to tick off Iain Duncan Smith (Chingford & Woodford Green) where Fazia Shaheen is hoping to pull off a shock victory. That should declare some time around 3 am. 

Penny Mordaunt’s result (Portsmouth North) is expected between 3 and 4 am; as are results for Michael Fabricant (Lichfield), Tobias Ellwood (Bournemouth East) and James Cleverly (Braintree).

Current Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is standing in the newly created Godalming & Ash constituency and is highly likely to lose, with his seat declaring probably between 4 and 5 am. David Davis (Goole and Pocklington) should get his result around the same time. But the big prize could well be in South West Norfolk, where former PM and economy wrecker Liz Truss is highly likely to lose out to the Lib Dems, which might just be worth staying up for.

All these times, of course, are entirely provisional. Not only is it impossible to predict how long any particular count will take, things are compounded by the fact that 88% of constituency boundaries have changed, meaning that historic declaration times are of little real use.


The best way to enjoy the Election Special is by reading the PDF. You can find it here or just look through here.

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