Despite current polling giving Labour a commanding lead over the Conservatives, our exclusive analysis indicates that Starmer is set to lose 2 million voters who supported Jeremy Corbyn in 2019.
Our analysis, based on polling carried out by Survation, the company who was closest to predicting the 2019 result, shows that currently 18% of the 10.2 million who supported Corbyn’s socialist agenda do not intend to put their cross next to Labour come polling day next year.
However, in what some will see as vindication of Starmer’s pro-Tory agenda, some 15% of 2019 Conservative voters are planning to vote Labour. With this Tory support Starmer could well end up equalling the number of votes achieved by Corbyn in 2019, although be substantially lower than the 2017 total.
These figures support what many on the left have been saying for some time. Starmer is a liability for Labour, even when Labour is up against the most inept Conservative Party in living memory.
Although according to YouGov only 29% of voters think Sunak is doing well, Starmer is not seen as doing much better with just 37% appraising him as doing well. This is despite the fact that Survation found that, overall, Labour is more trusted on issues ranging from the NHS to protecting the environment to the economy.
All of this has to be seen in the context of Labour currently being predicted to have 342 seats in the next parliament, compared to the Conservatives 202.
Trust in the Conservatives has finally run out following their disastrous handling of the cost of living crisis and Covid. And many people are beginning to see Brexit as a major mistake which damaged our economy at a time when every major economy was facing a recession. The UK economy fared worse than our European neighbours, largely because of our self-inflicted patriotic stupidity.
On election night, if these predictions come true, a procession of back stabbing Labour right-wingers will appear on TV trying to convince us that theirs is a historic victory. Nobody will mention, nor will they be asked, whether shedding voters is a ringing endorsement. Or whether a man so prone to lying is fit for any public office let alone for the top office in the land.
Socialist of many years. Former Labour member. Currently presenter of The Socialist Hour.